Analyzing the Impact of the Recession on Brand Sales
There are many issues that make it analytically difficult to determine the impact of the recession on brand sales:
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A natural, but non-causal, multicollinearity between brand sales and the economy. As a brand matures its growth typically slows. Recent deterioration in the economy will often have a correlation with product sales that might have slowed anyway, regardless of economic trends.
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Change in the economy over the past few years is not much different than a simple trend line, thus limiting the data variance needed to develop a good analytic model. But the analysis should be focused on the recent trends because any long-term historical relationship between sales and the economy has probably changed in the evolving marketplace.
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Time series models create autocorrelation issues that bias the estimated impact of the economy.
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Many other causal factors, such as FDA decisions, sales force promotional effort, seasonality, price, etc., simultaneously impact sales and need to be separated from the effect of the economy.
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Michael Allen Company has developed an analytic and modeling approach that overcomes these challenging issues.
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